I'm going to structure this like a Choose Your Own Adventure novel. You'll see.
1st Round
1st pick- Chris Paul. Period. He's better than LeBron, he shoots better than LeBron, he's younger than LeBron (could he possibly be improving this season?) and he makes all those who enter the assist and steal battles feel empty.
2nd pick- LeBron. Easy. If you can't get CP, get this stud.
3rd pick- Dwyane Wade. Also easy. Better than Kobe, younger than Kobe, and the main offensive option. If Jermaine's FGA's decrease and Beasley's increase, Wade has the same number as last year. The same numbers at least year will suit you perfectly. Take it from me.
4th-8th pick- Kevin Durant. Kevin Durant is THE pick for the first round. He's a steal at anything lower than 7th, just because the incredible upside, incredible scoring and rebounding and shooting and....everything. Man, he's just really good. If he's not an All-Star starter next year, we have a serious problem.
9th-end of round pick- Al Jefferson. Jefferson is the beast. After one season of injury, two things happen: a) the player comes back with a vengeance, or b) the player comes back injured. Jefferson's a battler and the Wolves need him badly. He'll be up and running, and he'll make Tim Duncan run for his money.
OR: 9th-end of round pick- Amare Stoudemire. Amare is going to outperform any standard because he needs a contract in 2010. If he's injured again and keeps complaining, he won't hold any leverage. If he keeps complaining and plays really freakin' well, at least it will be half-way warranted.
OR: 9th-end of round pick- Kevin Garnett. KG's got more than a lot left in the tank. Ray Allen is very possibly on the way out of Boston if they can't pulverize like usual. If that's the case, Garnett gets Timberwolf-like touches and makes every other power forward in the game look soft. If not, KG's still back with a vengeance. After having been without Garnett for so long, they'll look to him again.
If you picked Chris Paul, turn to my recommendation for my late second round pick.
If you picked LeBron, turn to my recommendation for my late second round pick.
If you picked Wade, turn to my recommendation for my late second round pick.
If you picked Kevin Durant, turn to any recommendation from the middle of the second round.
If you picked Amare Stoudemire, turn to my early second round pick.
If you picked Al Jefferson, turn to my early second round pick.
If you picked Kevin Garnett, turn to my early second round pick.
Early second round pick- Steve Nash. If you call him dried up from the outset, you're missing the point. He's still Steve Nash, basketball king of passing and shooting. From no one else in the league can you get 50-40-90, period. That's very important in any format.
Early to middle second round pick- Antawn Jamison. One thing you don't know anything about when it comes to Antawn Jamison are his pretty incredible stats. He hit 112 3's last season. That's more than Steve Nash. So he shoots well for a big guy and rebounds well as well. Expect another great year, considering Gilbert Arenas' return.
Middle to late second round pick- Paul Pierce. Your two picks here are Carter and Pierce. Pierce and Carter and quite similar. The difference is age. Pierce only just broke 30, and Carter's 33. That's pretty much it. The distribution is more or less the same passing-wise, the touches are the same, the talent's the same. It's a tossup. They're even, except you want Pierce, who has less chance of slowing down.
OR: Middle to late second round- Brook Lopez. The should-have-been rookie of the year, Brookie is a monster at a very early age. He was Andrew Bynum-like in his first year. What Lopez lacks in girth compared to Bynum, he makes up for in intensity. Unfortunately, this is the Lopez to pay attention to (not Robin).
If you have already picked a guard, proceed to Rashard Lewis.
If you have already picked a big man, proceed to Jason Richardson.
If any of the players listed are still available, pick the one that is. If more than one is available, pick the one earlier on this list.
Third round pick, regardless of time: Rashard Lewis. His shooting, decent rebounding, and...well, his shooting is impeccable. He'll easily give you six rebounds, 20 points, three 3's, a steal and a block. He's Rashard Lewis. He just happens to be good at everything. He'll also get deceptively good as the year goes along: not necessarily better, but the name Rashard Lewis will be in higher demand if the shooters that owners originally pick (Peja Stojakovic, Stephen Curry, Al Harrington, i.e.) fade away.
Third round pick: Jason Richardson. Yes, you might be tempted to say, "Oh, J-Drunk who stinks it up in Phoenix?" Correction: J-Drunk who stunk it up in Phoenix because he couldn't get touches when Shaq was around. J-Rich, as it happens, will get his threes and touches since Shaq's departure and once Nash takes more of a role-playing position. Remember, J-Rich Version 07-08 was one of the top three point shooters in history. He had an off-year last year and still had 1.8.
If you lack a point guard, proceed to Baron Davis.
If you picked later than half way and lack rebounding, proceed to David Lee.
If you picked earlier than half way and lack a shooting guard, proceed to OJ Mayo.
If you're not any of these, proceed to Jameer Nelson or Rajon Rondo.
Fourth round
Baron Davis. B-Diddy is back. Diddy is again going to be late-first round talent like in 2007-08. Why? Because he's passing to one of the picks that will make you look like a fantasy behemoth: Blake Griffin. Griffin will go off like nothing you've ever seen save for Tim Duncan, and Diddy will be there for 10 ast a game, 5 reb, 20 pts, 2 threes, 2 stl and half a block. In other words, think big. A repaired relationship with Mike Dunleavy, healthy limbs and great weapons in his arsenal will pump Diddy up to nothing you've ever seen.
David Lee. In Mike D'Antoni's system, anything is possible. Just ask Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire. The system carries over to New York, where any Knick is a fantasy staple at some level. Lee is highly underrated and for 17 pts/11 rebounds, he's a steal. You're not going to get much blocking out of him, which is a problem, but the rest of it, the FG%, the decent FT%, is all more than worth it.
OJ Mayo. The thing about OJ Mayo is that he was bonafide last year, and under Derrick Rose's shadow. Next year he's going to be even more bonafide. Think 2.5 3's, 2 stl, 47% FG for a guard, 5 ast, 5 reb...think Allen Iverson, to be perfectly honest.
Nelson/Rondo. They're pretty much the same in a number of ways. They're both going to be the main distributors on their team and give you around 7 ast per game. Nelson will give you 2 stl, Rondo will give you 2 stl. Nelson will give you 2 3's, Rondo will give you 5 reb. Nelson will give you 15 pts, Rondo will give you 15 pts. If you're looking for Jason Kidd, pick Rondo. If you're looking for a player like Steve Nash when he was with the Mavs, pick Nelson.
Fifth round
If you're missing a forward, proceed to Blake Griffin.
If you're missing a center, proceed to Andrew Bynum.
If you're missing a guard, proceed to Eric Gordon.
Blake Griffin. Blake Griffin, dominating force of basketball, throw-it-down monster and savior of the Clippers franchise, is the best pick in the whole dang draft. He's going to have a Tim Duncan-esque year in a round where you can feasibly pick up Al Horford. To heck with Al Horford! Take the guy who averaged 22 and 14 last year! Seriously!
Andrew Bynum. Reminds me of Artis Gilmore. Low scoring, ridiculous FG%, 2 blk, 8 or more RPG. He's a future Hall of Famer. His low post arsenal is far too advanced for most centers, who simply get to the basket and throw it down. Bynum is working with the likes of Kareem, so obviously his repertoire is advanced beyond belief. Expect a full season out of Bynum.
Eric Gordon. If you followed my advice, you already have a point guard. Eric Gordon is the next logical step. I pigeonhole Gordon for about 1.8 stl, 2.5 3's, 23 ppg, 80% FT...in other words, the works. He's the real deal, but behind Rose and Mayo and Love he gets the short end of the stick.
Friday, September 25, 2009
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