The Pattern, Edition 1

I haven't yet informed you of my prediction technology. It's simple: use the past to predict the future.

I was thinking about the 2009 draft. It's commonly said that 1984, 1996 and 2003 were the best. You can cancel that idea, because Bosh and 'Melo, while they are good players, aren't top notch on a talent/decade basis. I was thinking about that concept: talent/decade. 1960 had Big O and Jerry West. That was it. For the kind of talent that was being produced back then, the amount, that was significant. You can argue for '62, but there's not a good guard in sight. I tried to put a team together. Believe me. It's impossible. Hayes/Unseld in '68, Clyde/Pearl in '67, Kareem in '69, all were solid. Big O and Jerry in the same draft? Both were two of the top ten ever, probably, and both in the same draft.

For the 70's, it was 1972: Dr. J, Bob McAdoo, Paul Westphal, even Don Buse is big in fantasy circles for his great A/T ratios. '71 had one season of Haywood and Gilmore, which is a fiar argument. '74 had Walton who barely lasted, Marvin Barnes whose best season was his first, the Iceman (of course), Jamaal Wilkes who was decent...it was good. No Dr. J's or McAdoo's. It's harder to make the argument for '72, but it's mine to make.

Then, of course, there was '84. And '96. You know, 60, 72, 84, 96....they're going up by 12 years each time! That's how you notice a pattern. That's not a coincidence. That's history.

The next logical progression is to move on to 2008 as the best in the new millenium thus far. 2008? What about 2003? 2003 was good. We have yet to see how monstrous 2008 will be, and I predict, considering the even greater talent in the league now than in 2003, seeing as talent always increases as time passes, it will be even better than 2003.

Prediction #1: 2008 will be better than 2003.

After each of those, there's a legitimate 4, I realized. It gets harder to tell the earlier you go, but my candidate in 1961, Walt Bellamy, is 6'11". Let's just say that in the modern NBA, these candidates would work out as 4's height-wise, even if their games were structured to play the 5.

'73 brings ABA monster George McGinnis, who paves my road to truth with gold: the ABA in the 70's was better than the NBA of the 70's. Nevertheless...never heard of George McGinnis? The NBA's doing. Check out Basketball Reference.

'85 brings the Mailman. '97 brings Timmy D. '09 brings....Blake Griffin. Makes perfect sense. While you thought you'd be looking at Olowokandian performance, at best another Danny Manning, you were wrong. Sterling, it seems, got it right this time with the #1 pick.

Prediction #2: Blake Griffin will be a star in the league for years, a possible Hall of Famer at that.

If you were thinking of other patterns with draft years and types, don't think twice. Shaq '92/Howard '04? Howard/Shaq play a very similar game, albeit with different statistical results. McHale doesn't fit. The truth is that since the pattern starts with 1960. The 1950's drafts had one great guy, pretty much across the board. The 40's were pitiful. Like I said, the pattern stars with 1960. If you laid it out by decade, you couldn't do anything before 1960, and you couldn't do anything after 2009. For it to be an across-the-board pattern, as these things usually are, it would have to work across the board. You can't go before 1960 without falling into a talent black hole, save for Wilt, Russell, Cousy, Arizin and three other guys, or past 2009 without having any semblance of the talent to come. (Brandon Knight? Josh Smith II? Not enough evidence.)

For now, this works.

Prediction #3 analyzes the types of players that came out of the drafts. As in the NCAA tournaments, seeding plays a nominal, but important role. Picks in drafts also do the same. The best player in 1960 was Oscar Robertson, taken with the 1st pick. The best player in '72 was Dr. J, taken with the 12th pick. Michael Jordan, the best player ever, was taken, as we all know, with the 3rd pick. Kobe Bryant was taken with the 13th pick in '96. I'm detecting a pattern! 1, 3, and 12, 13. So who's the best in 2008? Well, if we take every other best draft since 1960, we come up with the fifth pick, Kevin Love. Not Derrick Rose? Not O.J. Mayo? Not Mike Beasley?

I want you to know something: Kevin Love's rebounding rate was 3rd in the league. 3rd...in the league. Right behind...Dwight Howard. In 25 minutes. I imagine he'll get a minute boost next year, and along with a talent boost, should increase from around 9 rebounds to...what? Even 11 is kind of pessimistic? 12? What if who ever the coach is gives him 35 minutes a game? 14? In his second season? Just to give you an idea: Tim Duncan was fifteenth on this list. Marcus Camby was a mere fourth. Joel Przybilla, believe it or not, grabbed the top spot. Przybilla's had his chance. Love's just getting started.

So you think it's a joke. Those numbers say "star" to me, not "joke." "Oh, he's just another Al Horford." Al Horford came in at 18% in '07-'08. Tim Duncan came in at 18.9%, and at fifteenth. Al's PER was 14.9. Love's? 18-ish.

This is not prospect love. This is star love. And I mean Love, the star. Kevin Love, quite possibly in the company of Jordan, Dr. J, Big O and Kobe. If I'm right, well, you might as well recommend me to John Hollinger. If not, don't read another thing I write.

Prediction #3: Kevin Love is one for the ages, right under your nose.

The patterns speak for themselves.